For several reasons I feel like the GOP run-off to determine its candidate for Governor of Alabama in November favors upstart challenger Dr. Robert Bentley rather than the lead vote getter Bradley Byrne. What got me thinking about this was the parallels between this race and 1998:
It was June 1998. One of the two leading vote getters, Montgomery businessman Winton Blount, won the lion's share of his votes along that deep red vein of GOP support known as the I-65 corridor -- home to the state's largest cities, most populous counties and big business.Another reason I feel like the run-off favors Dr. Bentley is the contentious nature of the race between Byrne and Tim James. Certainly Byrne would rather face James than Bentley in that James has already been his steady opposition and it will be hard to be so negative against a candidate that hasn't run any negative ads.
The other leader in that primary, Fob James, won almost every other county, town and dirt road dot-on-the-map place to make the runoff. In the runoff, James beat Blount, winning by more than 50,000 votes and taking all but four of the state's 67 counties, three of those four along the I-65 corridor.
Where Blount won then, Bradley Byrne won Tuesday, and then some, to fill one spot in the July 13 GOP primary runoff.
The third and final reason I feel like this run-off favors Dr, Bentley is the nature of the Alabama primary system. Despite whether you voted Republican or Democrat in the recent primary election any registered voter can participate in the GOP run-off. This leaves an opening for people like Dr. Paul Hubbert, who has a personal vendetta against Bradley Byrne, to not just run ads, but actually influence the electorate which he is already doing through phone calls to its members and attempting to get them to vote against Byrne in the run-off. This combined with the previous reasons mentioned and the fact that often times the lead vote getter in a run-off loses and you have an election that highly favors Dr. Robert Bentley.
